What Does the News of the Pac 12 Coming Back Mean to for the Big 12?
Are Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah on their way back?
If you're reading this post, you've probably heard the news that the Pac-12, or whatever we are going to call it now, has been strategically revived thanks to Commissioner Teresa Gould and the two schools left out of the crazy shuffle last summer, Oregon State and Washington State. After talks between the two remaining Pac-12 schools and the Big12/ ACC fell through, compounded with the negotiations stalling between the Mountain West and Pac 2 for a scheduling agreement, Oregon State and Washington State had to make a strategic move to stay alive.
That is when they decided to move and poach the four Mountain West schools: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State. College football moves at the speed of light. Even as I type this up, reports show that Tulane and Memphis are the next targets for the reformed Pac-12. To be considered a full-fledged conference, the minimum number of teams allowed is eight, so that means that two more teams are needed to join after the addition of the four Mountain West teams before the July 2026 deadline.
Oregon State and Washington State's reincarnation of the Pac-12 made their path to the playoff easier, even if it is still daunting. Wazzu and the Beavers would need an immaculate season even to be considered without a conference. With a conference, the path got much easier, as a conference win would make it much easier to make the playoffs.
With all that said and done, what does all of this news of the Pac-12 coming back from the dead mean for the Big 12? Do any of the new 4-corner schools go back to the Pac-12? Does the Big 12 have another conference to compete over playoff seeding? Let's discuss.
Does Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, or Utah go back?
Conference realignment will be here forever. Like NIL and the transfer portal, it is part of the modern game and will not disappear anytime soon. The Big 12 is no stranger to realignment; in fact, the Big 12 is usually the conference at the center of contraction and expansion in college football. This time, for once, the Big 12 is not the one at the center of conference realignment. Or is it?
With the Pac-12 returning to life, it's not out of the question that the newly added Big 12 teams—Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah—could move back to their previous conference. Geographically, it makes sense, and that is what we traditionally know as the Pac-12; however, as much as it makes sense geographically and historically, all that takes a back seat regarding money and TV exposure.
The reason the Pac-12 broke up in the first place is the lack of a TV deal or at least a good one. Former Commissioner George Kliavkoff's failure to get a TV deal and his conjuring up a disappointing Apple TV deal in the 11th hour will be his legacy. In a search for a TV deal, Colorado left, followed by the Arizona schools, followed by Oregon and Washington. This financial aspect is a key concern in the current landscape of college football.
The TV deal between the Big 12 and ESPN/FOX currently brings in an estimated $50 million per school, just short of the $51 million SEC schools and the $60 million Big 10 schools make annually. The new Pac-12 would have to get a pretty good TV deal for the four schools that left for the Big 12 to return.
Are they going to be a Power Conference?
The new Pac-12 would also need a power conference designation secured before any of the four schools that came to the Big 12 would consider returning. This designation is critical because a "Power Conference" is allowed some extra autonomy from the NCAA and is given special voting rights that the other "Group of 5" conferences are not offered. So, of course, the Pac 12 would love to have those voting.
Depending on what happens to the Mountain West, the new iteration of the Pac 12 will likely be a new "Group of" conference, meaning it will be a Group of 6 conferences outside of the Power 4 instead of a Group of 5.
Even if the new Big 12 schools REALLY wanted to go back, without a TV deal or power conference designation, it would make zero sense financially and make it much harder to make the playoffs.
Does this affect the Playoffs for the Big 12?
The original playoff model was a "6+6" model, meaning there would be six conference winners and six at-large teams. That meant the Pac-12 and the highest-rated Group of 5 teams would make the playoffs. Now that the Pac 12 is out of the "Power Conference" conversation, we have the "5+7" model, meaning it's the Power 4 and the highest-rated Group of 5 school. If this new Pac-12 ever got their Power Conference status back, the playoffs seeding would likely change back to a "6+6" format. That means the Big 12 still has their automatic spot locked in, regardless of the Pac-12's "power status."
However, a new conference, even a "Group of 6," means more competition for the four byes granted to the highest-ranked conference winners. A Pac-12 team could, in theory, take an at-large playoff position in the future.
Does the Big 12 continue to expand west?
Let's look at this from a different angle. Does the new Pac-12 incarnation mean that the Big 12 is willing to continue expanding west once the conference settles in? Does the Big 12 continue to grow and select some Pac-12 teams willing to jump to a "Power" conference? As we know, the Big 12 is still open to expansion after reports revealed they were open to bringing in UConn as a basketball team in 2026 and then as a football member in 2031.
This scenario is highly unlikely. If the Big 12 wanted any of the new Pac-12 teams or Washington State/Oregon State, commissioner Brett Yormark would have already decided. Reports indicate there were talks between the Beavers and Cougars with the Big12, which fell through. If this were to happen-- in a weird alternative universe--it probably wouldn't be until 2032. Bringing in teams before means that the TV deal pie would have to be cut into further pieces, which not many schools would be happy to approve. That is why the SEC is unwilling to bring in FSU and Clemson.
It looks like the Big 12 is set for now—until they aren't, and the inevitable clock for conference realignment strikes again.